October Market Update

Fewer homes coming to market, buyers staying active and prices holding firm.

October brought some interesting changes to the North Wales property market. Fewer sellers came forward, buyers continued to agree sales at a steady pace and property values reached their highest October levels in six years.

We're also seeing a change in seller behaviour, with fewer properties being reduced or withdrawn and fewer sales falling through. Overall, the market is gradually tightening, which is worth paying attention to whether you're thinking of buying or selling.

Fewer homes coming to market

One of the biggest changes in October was the drop in new properties being listed.

Across Denbighshire, Flintshire and Conwy, 349 new homes came to market, compared with 468 in September and 411 in October last year.

That's a 25.4% monthly decrease and 15.1% fewer than a year ago. It's also 12.3% below the October average of 398. Only October 2021 has seen fewer new listings in the past six years.

The overall choice for buyers is shrinking too. There were 2,259 properties available at the end of October, down 3.7% on September and 9.4% on last year.

Although stock remains 5% above the October average of 2,152, choice is clearly reducing when compared with the last three years.

Seasonal factors will play a part, with some sellers preferring to wait until spring, while others may be keeping an eye on interest rates before making their next move.

Buyers aren't holding back

Despite fewer homes coming to market, buyers are continuing to make their move.

There were 334 sales agreed in October, just below September's 344 and last October's 352. That's a relatively small decrease of 2.9% month on month and 5.1% year on year.

Perhaps the most interesting comparison is between new listings and sales agreed. With 349 homes coming to market and 334 finding a buyer, properties are going under offer almost as quickly as new ones are being listed.

Around one in every seven homes on the market found a buyer during October.

If this pattern continues through the winter, we could see available stock reduce further, creating a more competitive market for buyers.

And it's easy to understand the continued appeal of our area. From the commuter towns of Flintshire, with links to Chester, the Wirral and Deeside, to the market towns of Denbighshire and the coastline from Prestatyn to Llandudno, North Wales offers a lot for buyers relocating, upsizing or looking for a change of lifestyle.

Prices reach their highest October levels in six years

Pricing was another real talking point in October.

The average asking price of newly listed properties reached £292,198, up 14% on October last year (£256,419) and 15.6% on September (£252,867).

While the mix of properties coming to market can influence this figure, the price per square foot gives us a more balanced comparison.

New listings averaged £257 per sq ft, up 2.8% on September and 4.5% on last October. This is also the highest October figure recorded.

The properties actually going under offer tell a similar story. Their average asking price was £255,048, up 6.7% on the month and 4.1% on the year.

On a price-per-square-foot basis, agreed sales reached £246, up 1.7% on September and 3.8% on last October.

For some longer-term perspective, homes going under offer averaged £218 per sq ft in October 2021. Five years later, that's risen to £246, an increase of around 13%.

It's a steady upward trend across our three counties, rather than the sharp price movements seen in some other parts of the country.

Sellers are showing more patience

There are some encouraging signs in the way sellers are approaching the market.

October saw 276 price reductions, compared with 316 in September and 328 in October last year. That's 15.9% fewer than a year ago, although still 7.4% above the October average of 257.

Withdrawals also fell, with just 154 properties taken off the market. That's down 24.1% on last year and 14% below the October average.

Perhaps most encouragingly, sales falling through reached 95, down from 113 a year ago. This is 19.5% below the October average of 118 and matches October 2023 as the lowest October figure recorded.

Of course, fall-throughs remain part of the market. With 334 sales agreed, roughly one in every three or four transactions still fell apart. Chains, particularly where buyers are relocating or selling elsewhere first, can bring their challenges.

But overall, these figures suggest a more settled market, with fewer sellers walking away and fewer agreed sales collapsing.

What's happening nationally?

The wider UK market has lost some momentum. Nationwide's October figures put the average house price at £273,566, with annual growth of just 0.5%, the weakest since January 2024.

Against this backdrop, the continued growth in price per square foot across Denbighshire, Flintshire and Conwy is particularly interesting.

There was also a significant change just after October ended. On 5 November, the Bank of England increased Base Rate from 3.75% to 4%, following an 8–1 vote.

Inflation reached 3.5% in September, with the Bank expecting it to rise towards 5% by the middle of next year.

For tracker mortgage holders, the increase adds approximately £15 per month for every £100,000 borrowed. Fixed mortgage rates had also been edging upwards during October as lenders anticipated the decision.

For buyers in Wales, Land Transaction Tax is another cost to consider, rather than stamp duty. With average asking prices now above £250,000 across the three counties, many purchases sit above the threshold where it starts to apply.

It's understandable, then, that buyers are being considered in their approach rather than rushing into decisions.

What does this mean if you're selling?

There are some positive signs for sellers.

With new listings at one of their lowest October levels in six years and buyers continuing to commit, there's less competition for attention than we've seen for some time.

Values per square foot are also at their highest October levels in the data, while fewer properties are being withdrawn and fewer sales are falling through.

That doesn't mean every property will sell at any price, though. Buyers remain conscious of value, particularly with borrowing costs rising, and around one in eight homes on the market still had a price reduction during October.

Getting the asking price right, presenting your home well and reaching the right audience remain essential.

The quieter winter months could also present an opportunity. With fewer properties available, a well-prepared home has the chance to stand out before the busier spring market arrives.

And if you're buying?

There's still a reasonable amount of choice, with more than 2,250 properties available across the three counties.

October also saw 276 price reductions, so there are still opportunities to negotiate, particularly on homes that have been available for a while or may have initially been priced too ambitiously.

However, the direction of travel is worth considering. Stock is falling, fewer new homes are coming to market and values per square foot are increasing.

Waiting until spring might bring more choice, but it could also mean more competition from other buyers.

With Base Rate now at 4% and inflation still rising, getting your mortgage agreement in principle in place, understanding your Land Transaction Tax costs and being ready to proceed can put you in a much stronger position.

Having a solicitor lined up and, ideally, your own property sale agreed can also make a real difference when making an offer.

Looking ahead

October has shown us a North Wales property market that is quietly tightening.

Fewer sellers are coming forward, buyers are still committing, prices are holding firm and fewer transactions are falling apart.

It's not a market that's racing ahead, but it is one showing some encouraging signs of stability.

As we move towards the end of the year, the usual winter slowdown and the recent Base Rate increase may keep activity measured. However, for sellers who price realistically and buyers who are prepared, there are still opportunities to make a move.

From the commuter towns along the A55 to the market towns of the Vale of Clwyd and the coastline from Prestatyn to Llandudno, North Wales continues to offer plenty of appeal.

And with that, we're heading into 2027 with a market that's certainly worth watching.